Rare earth elements (REEs) power everything from electric vehicles to fighter jets and mobile technology, making them a critical component in practically every aspect of our lives. China has had a stranglehold on the market for decades, refining over 85% of the world’s supply. But as demand surges and geopolitical tensions escalate, other nations are scrambling to secure their own sources (US Department of Energy).

Ukraine has become a key global player in this high-stakes race. Reports suggest former US President Donald Trump sought as much as 50% of Ukraine’s critical minerals in exchange for US support (NBC News). It’s not just about Ukraine—it’s about who will control the rare earth supply chain in the decades ahead.

Why rare-earth minerals are the world’s new arms race

Despite their name, rare earth metals aren’t actually rare. The challenge is extracting and refining them, making them both expensive and strategically valuable. These elements are essential for green energy, including wind turbines, electric vehicle batteries and solar panels; consumer electronics like smartphones, laptops and advanced semiconductors; plus defence and aerospace, like fighter jets, satellites and missile guidance systems.

With global demand for these materials growing fast, control over rare earth supply chains is a matter of economic and international security.

Ukraine’s rare earth jackpot: Who will cash in?

Beyond the ongoing war, Ukraine holds considerable reserves of rare earth and critical minerals. While these resources remain largely untapped, they’ve drawn intense interest from the US, EU and Japan, each looking to loosen Beijing’s grip on global supply (The Hill).

US interest: A mineral gold rush?

Reports indicate that Trump’s negotiations with Ukraine tied economic aid and security guarantees to access to the country’s mineral wealth (Politico). With China dominating rare earth processing, the US and its allies are desperate for alternative supply lines. Ukraine could be a strategic asset in that push.

Russia’s game plan: Keep it in the family

While much of the world sees the war in Ukraine as a political and military conflict, rare earths may be another factor. Russia has its own rare earth ambitions and would likely prefer to keep Ukraine’s reserves under its influence rather than let them fall into Western hands (The Independent). The big question: Can Ukraine develop these resources before external forces dictate their future?

China’s grip: The supply chain stranglehold

China still controls rare earth refining and processing as the US and Europe scramble to find alternative sources. That means any attempt to shift supply chains will be slow and costly. Beijing has weaponised rare earth exports before, cutting off supply to Japan in 2010 over a territorial dispute and threatening restrictions against the US in 2021 (The Guardian).

With tensions rising, China may tighten the supply chain again—just as the West tries to establish its own rare earth industry.

Africa: The rising underdog in rare earths

While Ukraine dominates headlines, Africa’s rare earth potential is quietly expanding. The continent holds around 9% of global reserves, with promising projects in:

• South Africa: Steenkampskraal and Phalaborwa could become major suppliers.

• Burundi: Home to Africa’s only currently producing rare earth mine.

• Namibia and Madagascar: Increasing exploration efforts for future production (Mining.com).

Africa could provide an alternative to Ukraine—or at least fill certain gaps—but the challenges are considerable. Without processing facilities, investment and stable regulations, most African rare earths are still sent abroad for refining—often to China (Brookings Institution).

Rare earths: The war without weapons

The battle for rare earths isn’t just about economics anymore—it’s about control, influence and global power. The US is pushing to secure Ukraine’s minerals, Russia wants its own piece of the puzzle, China remains the refining superpower and Africa is waiting in the wings.

The real question isn’t just who has the most rare earths—it’s who can mine, refine and control them.

And in this race, there are no guarantees.