Shortlist and FSD Africa, with analysis by the Boston Consulting Group, have published Forecasting Green Jobs in Africa – the first report of its kind that forecasts the new direct job creation potential of 12 “green” sub-sectors by 2030.

Funded by UK Aid, FSD Africa is a specialist development agency aiming to facilitate finance for Africa’s future.

The report predicts the creation of up to 3,3 million new direct “green” jobs across the continent by 2030 – the majority in the renewable energy sector, particularly solar.

The study, the first in-depth analysis of workforce needs within major “green” value chains over the next five years, provides detailed forecasts for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa, which together account for 22% of new jobs in key sectors such as renewable energy, e-mobility, agriculture, construction and manufacturing.

Forecasting Green Jobs in Africa underscores the critical importance of a skilled workforce as an input accelerating African “green” industries, emphasising the need for substantial investment in skills development and workforce mobilisation. Millions of jobs created in the “green revolution” will also contribute to formalising African economies and the inclusion of populations in stable systems of remuneration, social security and taxation for the first time.

The report also outlines key strategies required to cultivate Africa’s green jobs ecosystem – from targeted investments in high-potential sectors and value chains to fostering cross-sector collaboration among governments, the private sector, educational institutions and investors as well as development of comprehensive support policies for “green” sectors.

The report calls for further analysis of labour demand key value chains to identify Africa’s current skilled labour supply and potential gaps.

While some experts have suggested that up to 100 million “green” jobs may be created by 2050, this report takes a more near-term, sober and realistic look at the job creation potential of 12 specific sub-sectors or value chains until 2030. This more conservative analysis is intended to guide near-term investments and policy decisions among universities, workforce development actors and government to ensure mobilisation of the right skills and workforce to meet demand.

Significantly, it predicts that 60% of employment generated by the “green” economy over the coming six years will be skilled or “white collar”. Within this, 10% constitute “advanced jobs” (highly skilled requiring university degrees), another 30% are projected to be “specialised” (requiring certification or vocational training) and 20% will be administrative. Crucially, as these job types tend to attract higher salaries, the roles are central in spurring the growth of the middle class in countries hosting high-growth sectors. The stability of unskilled jobs is also important as this will offer ladders up the employment scale for candidates with employability enhanced by access to training and experience.

“There is a cross-sector effort across Africa to spur employment and sustainable development but stakeholders lack a shared, granular understanding of where the ‘green’ jobs are going to come from,” said Mark Napier, CEO of FSD Africa.

The report offers a methodology for forecasting “green” jobs, which can inform investment in these markets, he pointed out.

Paul Breloff, CEO of Shortlist, said this is the first public report that seriously considers the importance of human capital, including talent, as an input in “green” economic growth and as a positive outcome – in the form of millions of new, direct jobs. “Now policymakers, funders and workforce developers need to step up to meet this near-term demand with effective training, apprenticeships and job/skill matching in hopes of achieving Africa’s green promise.”

Other key findings include:

• South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria represent the highest job-creation potential (16%) due to population, GDP and industry maturity
• The renewable energy sector is expected to generate up to two million jobs (70% of the total) of which 1,7 million will be in solar
• Solar is the most important contributor to “green” jobs in South Africa (140 000 jobs) and Kenya (111 000 jobs)
• Hydroelectric is forecast to be the leading employer in the DRC (16 000 jobs) and Ethiopia (33 000 jobs)
• Agriculture and nature are forecast to produce up to 700 000 jobs (25% of the total) of which more than half (377 000) will come from climate-smart agriculture technology

Click here to download a copy of the report.